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Disease Forecasting and Modeling Data for Public Health Action Disease Forecasting Benefits Public Health Planning Disease forecasting and modeling help prepare public health departments for future infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. Disease forecasting and modeling data can be powerful tools for state and local health agencies (S/THAs) that respond to outbreaks, develop appropriate policies, and ensure interventions have maximum impact. Actions for which decision-makers can leverage such data include: Surveillance. Forecasts and modeling help public health agencies anticipate the spread of disease or outbreaks. This advance warning allows public health officials to inform public health recommendations, preparation, and response. Communication. Disease forecasts help relate the risk of disease outbreaks to various audiences accurately and quickly, which, in turn, can inform messages on important preventive measures and encourages compliance with recommended interventions. Resource allocation. Modeling data can help decision-makers better allocate resources by predicting where and when disease outbreaks are likely to intensify and create the greatest need. Evaluation. Forecasts and modeling can help make evaluating the effectiveness of public health policies and interventions more efficient by comparing predicted outcomes with observed data and adjusting as needed. Considerations Informed by S/THA Forecasting Jurisdictions with forecasting experience identified key indicators to monitor as part of outbreak forecasting, which fall into three main categories: Epidemic spread indicators (e.g., symptom monitoring, morbidity and mortality data, percent positivity, regional pictures of transmission). Health care system capacity (e.g., essential and/or surge personnel, available beds, ventilator usage, and supply of personal protective equipment. Public health capacity for testing capacity and contact tracing. Further considerations for S/THAs: Know your strengths. Identify the unique skillsets among partners in public health, academia, and the private sector and consider how they foster reciprocal relationships. Recognize capacity/expertise gaps. Consider leveraging partnerships for specific types of analytics expertise while exploring internal capacity building opportunities (e.g., job shadowing and resource-sharing programs on workflows and methodologies). Engage legal and compliance teams. Ensure policy and practice are aligned among partners. Explore data access/sharing pipelines. Connect public, private, academic partners, and their audiences. Start small. Identify discrete forecasting and modeling projects to demonstrate success. Identify decision-makers’ needs. Provide quick access to analyses, metrics, dashboards. Michigan Used Models and Forecasting for Hep C Cases In response to Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in young adults from 2010-2018, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) simulated how HCV treatment could significantly reduce HCV prevalence among young people who inject drugs, especially for those both previously or currently injecting drugs. MDHHS used several novel predictors to paint a local picture of probable HCV diagnoses among residents up to age 40. These predictors included measures related to a variety of population characteristics (e.g., access to transportation, college education, presence of non-family households) and public health indicators (e.g., heroin treatment admissions, newborns with neonatal abstinence syndrome, and sexually-transmitted infections). MDHHS also leveraged county-level assessments of HCV vulnerability to identify locations for new syringe services programs in the state. MDHHS has recognized several modeling and analytics use cases that benefitted their work during responses to HCV and COVID-19: Short-term forecasts (i.e., weeks) helped predict likely transmission patterns and potential ranges of projections. Longer-term forecasts (i.e., months) explored scenarios based on new recommendations and policy changes. Retrospective counterfactuals evaluated the impact of policies or other changes by examining “what-if” situations. MDHHS is considering using forecasts and models for COVID-19, influenza epidemics, tuberculosis vulnerability, and C. auris spread. Resource constraints require decision-makers and public health practitioners to consider how they are using available resources for the highest return on investment. Models generated momentum to respond to threats and evaluate whether interventions were successful. CDC-RFA-OT18-1802 2018-2024 article yes

There are a number of court cases playing out across the country that could affect the options state and territorial health officials have to limit the spread of disease and promote health and well-being.

Public health leaders are positioned to prevent illness from the "tripledemic” of COVID-19, Influenza, and RSV with approved vaccines and preventative antibody treatments.

Learn about the importance of immunization information systems to public health in this Health Policy Update.

With Omicron surges pushing jurisdictions to activate protocols for providing healthcare during crisis, it is important to incorporate disability inclusion into these crisis standards of care.

During the 2022 state legislative sessions, at least 20 states considered bills that would require a religious exemption to a vaccine requirement. As state legislatures continue considering vaccine protocols for COVID-19, HPV, and other diseases—along with what types of exemptions should be given—courts are reconsidering what type of vaccine requirements are constitutional.

The 2020 holiday season is coinciding with a nationwide surge of COVID-19 cases. With great concern that holiday travel to see loved ones may exacerbate community spread of the virus, many states are increasing public health measures before the winter holiday season. As of November 16, 2020, 13 states and D.C. had a quarantine requirement for out-of-state travelers. The U.S. territories also have instituted travel restrictions to limit the spread of COVID-19.

As COVID-19 emerged and spread in the U.S., people working and residing in long-term care facilities have experienced a significant burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths. As of Oct. 8, deaths associated with these facilities account for 40% of total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. Health officials have taken measures to improve their funding and capacity.

Several states and territories, as well as many local governments, are going beyond recommendations and requiring individuals to wear face coverings when they are in public settings and spaces (i.e. grocery stores, retail stores, restaurants, public and private transportation services, parks, etc.). Ongoing research and evidence suggests the relationship between mandatory face coverings and declines in daily COVID-19 growth rates is statistically significant.

Responsible for planting, growing, harvesting, processing, and preparing the food we eat, agricultural workers are essential workers during the COVID-19 response to keep the U.S. food supply chain operating efficiently. But farmworkers are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 due to lack of physical distancing, lack of access to health insurance and sick leave, and poor access to clean water for handwashing throughout the work day.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exasperated challenges around access to nutritious and affordable foods. In response, the federal government has taken action to increase funding and access to programs to strengthen food security.

This infographic highlights 10 high-level strategies to advance work in school behavioral health.

The findings detailed in this report were gathered during a series of School Behavioral Health Advisory Committee convenings in spring 2021. The goal was identify policy gaps and strategies for delivering behavioral health services in schools. Final recommendations include: develop shared communication and vision; enhance state-cross sector partnerships; use data driven action; and implement innovative policies to improve access to services

Outcomes and Implications of ACIP’s Vote on the Hepatitis B Vaccine for Newborns Implications of ACIP Vote on Hepatitis B Vaccine for Newborns Susan Kansagra, Andy Baker-White, Kim Martin, Jessica Baggett Learn about the outcomes and implications of the December 2025 ACIP vote on the hepatitis B vaccine for newborns. On Dec. 4 and 5, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) held a long-anticipated meeting featuring two major topics of discussion: the hepatitis B birth dose and the pediatric vaccine schedule. The committee voted on two questions related to the pediatric hepatitis B vaccine schedule, both of which passed. To briefly summarize the outcome of the meeting, ACIP shifted from recommending a universal birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine for all newborns to individualized decision-making for newborns born to HBsAg-negative mothers. There was no change to the recommendation for infants born to HBsAg-positive mothers or whose HBsAg status is unknown. CDC has not yet adopted these changes. In the meantime, many states are taking actions to provide clarity to providers and promote public confidence in the vaccine. How States Are Taking Action In response to (and in some cases before) the new ACIP recommendations, several states issued recommendations, guidelines, standing orders, executive directives, and health alerts for providers to provide clarity. States Recommending or Encouraging the Full Vaccine Series Some states are issuing their own guidance and recommendations for the hepatitis B vaccine series or encouraging providers to adhere to the series as is it was before the new ACIP recommendations: The Northeast Public Health Collaborative released a consensus statement before the ACIP meeting recommending the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose and a schedule that aligns with clinical recommendations. Collaborative members also issued statements reaffirming their adherence to established hepatitis B vaccine recommendations, including Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Maryland also released guidance for parents and caregivers about its childhood immunization recommendations. States in the West Coast Health Alliance issued statements supporting the universal birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine. These states include California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. Many individual states also issued statements affirming the recommendation for the continued use of the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose, including Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, and Vermont. States Issuing Standing Orders and Executive Directives At least two states issued a standing order or executive directive related to the hepatitis B vaccine: The Maryland Department of Health issued a standing order to ensure hepatitis B vaccine access for infants and children in the state. The standing order authorizes qualified health care providers to administer the hepatitis B vaccine and outlines the policies and procedures for administering the vaccine. In New Jersey, the acting health commissioner issued an executive directive recommending the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose and full series. States Issuing Public Health Alerts and Advisories Well before the recent ACIP meeting, the Maine CDC issued a health advisory to providers recommending the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose and full series. Since the ACIP meeting, at least two other states have released provider advisories. Maryland issued a letter to providers laying out the state’s hepatitis B vaccine recommendations, and New Hampshire issued a health alert with a continued recommendation for the full hepatitis B vaccine series and birth dose. In addition, Vermont sent a guidance letter to the providers in the state’s vaccine program. States Reexamine State Statutes and Agency Rules Linking to ACIP Recommendations Over the last several months, many states have proposed and enacted legislation to move away from sole reliance on ACIP recommendations. More recently, Massachusetts adopted H 4761, authorizing the health commissioner — in consultation with a newly established committee on immunization recommendations — to review and issue alternative standards to ACIP recommendations. States are also proposing changes to agency rules related to school and childcare immunization requirements. For example, Colorado’s health department has issued a proposed rule to modify the state’s standards for school and childcare immunization requirements and to align its rules with recent changes to state statute. Additional Considerations for States If CDC adopts the proposed ACIP recommendations, states can consider the following actions. Hepatitis B Screening States should continue to work with health care providers to close gaps in hepatitis B screening and follow-up for infants of HBsAg-positive mothers. Data show the most common cause of perinatal infection occurs when a mother with hepatitis B gives birth and the infant does not receive follow-up postexposure prophylaxis. Insurance Coverage While public and private insurance, including the Vaccines for Children program, are still required to cover the hepatitis B vaccine, such as any birth doses given to infants of HBsAg-negative mothers under shared clinical decision-making, states can consider creating additional coverage requirements. Some states have passed policies on insurance coverage, and other states have proposed legislation related to other vaccine coverage. Implementation of Shared Clinical Decision-Making While health care providers and parents have the flexibility to determine their approach for infants of HBsAg-negative mothers (i.e., continuing to recommend/give a birth dose), ACIP recommendations that rely on shared clinical decision-making have increased provider questions on how to have and document these conversations. States can work with medical associations, provider boards, and health care partners to ensure clinicians understand how to apply shared clinical decision-making recommendations. This includes educating staff in birthing hospitals, community clinics, and pediatric practices on how to counsel parents and document informed discussions. Jurisdictions can also develop or adapt educational materials and decision aids that clearly outline benefits, risks, timing, and follow-up options to support both providers and parents. More information on shared clinical decision-making is available from CDC and Common Health Coalition. States can also encourage providers and birthing institutions to examine workflows, Immunization Information System documentation, and follow-up to ensure scheduling of future doses. Implications for Vaccine Supply States can examine vaccine supply through the Vaccines for Children program to understand how the new recommendations impact supply of single antigen hepatitis B vaccines. If a significant percentage of the population receives vaccines on a different timetable, it could impact supply and timing for other vaccinations, given the reliance on combination vaccines for hepatitis B dose two and three, which can include DTaP, polio, and Hib vaccines. Supplemental Resources Common Health Coalition: Vaccine Resources December 2025 ACIP Meeting: Hepatitis B Updates for Health Leaders (PDF) Vaccine Integrity Project – Hepatitis B by Centers for Infectious Disease Research and Policy Understanding the Benefits of Vaccines: Common Questions by HealthyChildren.org Childhood Vaccinations (PDF) by Your Local Epidemiologist Hep B Birth Dose Media Toolkit by Hepatitis B Foundation Reframing the Conversation About Child and Adolescent Vaccinations by Frameworks Institute CDC: ACIP Shared Clinical Decision-Making Recommendations ACIP Meeting Materials for Public Posting: Hepatitis B Birth Dose Briefing Document (PDF) Hepatitis B Birth Dose Vaccination (PDF) article yes

Learn more about recent federal and Supreme Court cases that impact public health policy.

Recap the state legislative sessions in 2025 thus far, spanning maternal health, infectious disease, and other important public health issues.

On this episode, speakers will address both issues and highlight the importance of public health agencies leading with and integrating equity in their COVID-19 response. We hear from three leaders managing their COVID-19 response by prioritizing areas with the greatest need and supporting community-led decision-making to ensure the most socially vulnerable populations have increased access to treatment, testing, isolation options, and resources.

Members of the Making Dialysis Safer for Patients Coalition discuss the role of public health in dialysis safety and the impact the coalition has had on their work.

The need for food and nutritional assistance is growing. Based on Feeding America’s food insecurity projections released in March, it is anticipated that 42 million people may experience food insecurity this year—up from 35 million pre-pandemic. The job loss in communities as businesses had to shut down or reduce capacity has left many families across the country relying on food banks. In fact, food banks in the Feeding America network distributed 6.1 billion meals to individuals and families during this pandemic, an increase of 43% from 2019. Many of the people who have fallen into food insecurity are experiencing it for the first time in their lives, as our food pantry partners across the country report that 35% or more of the people they’re serving today had never received charitable food prior to the pandemic.

As the number of COVID-19 vaccinations grows, some states are looking at their vaccination rates to determine when to loosen measures that mitigate the spread of COVID-19, such as venue capacity limits, business closure times, and masking requirements. As vaccinations allow businesses to reopen and customers to return, questions have arisen about whether venues or services—especially those that bring people in close contact for long periods of times—such as retail stores, concert venues, entertainment venues, air travel, cruise ships, etc., can require patrons or customers to verify that they received a COVID-19 vaccine. So far, state policy makers have had mixed views on the issue.