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This report analyzes the results from a survey of state and territorial health agency staff to collect information regarding health agency efforts to address climate change and extreme weather.

This report shares Puerto Rico’s strategy and recommendations for developing a social determinants of health dashboard.

In February 2019, ASTHO surveyed its members to understand how data is being utilized to address these harms in their jurisdictions. This brief summarizes the results of this survey and highlights data-based approaches used to address four types of opioid-related harms.

Learn about the importance of immunization information systems to public health in this Health Policy Update.

Geographic Information Systems and other data visualization tools have become integral parts of public health decision-making workflows and provide crucial support to topic areas such as environmental health, the COVID-19 pandemic response, and chronic disease investigation and prevention.

We can prepare for the future of health equity and data by ensuring the equitable collection of data and building systems that are flexible enough to account for forward progress.

The Florida Department of Health created an effective algorithm to automate syphilis laboratory result processing that improves case assignment accuracy and prioritization. This tool outlines key steps and considerations for jurisdictions looking to adopt the algorithm.

Defining Disease Forecasting and Modeling Disease forecasting, generated by disease models, helps the public health workforce understand potential future outbreaks. Learn more about disease forecasts and models. Disease forecasting is important in describing potential future outbreaks that will affect the population and demand for health services in a given geographic area. Forecasts pull input from various sources (e.g., disease models, demographic, mobility, and intervention impact data). Individual forecasts can also be part of an ensemble forecast to improve accuracy. Forecasts can cover any length of time, but most target a window of several weeks to a few months. A subset of forecasts, known as nowcasts, seek to estimate present conditions, or those expected to occur imminently. Disease models are mathematical tools that are foundational components of disease forecasts. They estimate quantifiable factors that are impossible or impractical to directly measure, (e.g., future hospitalizations from a given disease, or its infection count in a population). Although models can be useful for specific questions, they do not give as complete a picture as a forecast. There are four major disease model types: Mechanistic. Attempts to simulate biological and/or social processes of transmission based on assumptions from prior or experimental data. Statistical. Relies on past data (such as infections or death) to predict future trends and can incorporate some assumptions about intervention application and uptake. Quality and quantity of past data can be a major limitation, and some models may suggest biological improbabilities. Agent. Simulates individual risks and behaviors in a population. These are highly complex, computationally very expensive to develop and run and require vast amounts of data and strong assumptions. Ensemble. Like their forecasting counterparts, they compile models and outputs, mitigating the risk of relying on one data point. While raising the overall confidence in output, they require coordination of many models to be built and simulated, which can be complex and costly unless the models already exist (such as for COVID-19 case counts). Forecasts and Models Work Together While disease forecasts and models are often conflated, they are discrete concepts. Forecasts offer a general prediction, whereas models are the mathematical pieces forecasters use to create them. Weather forecasts are commonplace, and their weekly predictions are often reasonably accurate. In contrast, predicting a big storm’s individual factors (e.g., rainfall, wind speed, lightning strikes) fall to the job of models. Together, those models help meteorologists better understand the weather and generate a forecast. In a public health context, disease forecasting informs public health officials, health care providers, and policymakers about potential risks and guide decision-making regarding preventive measures, resource allocation, and response strategies. Meanwhile, disease models aim to simulate the behavior of infectious diseases under different scenarios, allowing researchers to explore and evaluate various factors that influence disease transmission. Considerations for Decision-Making Decision-makers should consider scope and limitations of forecasts and models. They may consider adding inputs—such as projections for economic and long-term impacts. Examples include economic impacts of school closures, costs of more staffing ahead of an outbreak, and supply chain shortage forecasts for personal protective equipment (PPE). Decision-makers at all levels should consider using modeling to answer more specific, practical questions rather than predicting overall trends. Forecasts can cover different geographic scales. Public health leaders will need granular, local data to most effectively inform decision-making and communications. Novel conditions and pathogens may not have readily available data to inform models or forecasts, which will affect their predictive ability. Health officials must effectively communicate these limitations to decision-makers and the public. Examples of Forecasts and Models CDC’s COVID-19 Forecast for Hospitalizations (ensemble forecast) shows the number of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in the United States from the prior two months and projected daily COVID-19 hospitalizations over the coming four weeks. Information sources are independent teams meeting submission and data quality requirements. CDC’s FluSight (ensemble forecast) has many contributing teams and models that predicts the upcoming weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions both nationally and by state. Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering county-level risk model for COVID-19 in the United States. This model leverages epidemiological data, mobile phone data, demographic and socioeconomic information, and behavioral metrics. The Global Epidemic and Mobility Framework simulates the global spread of infectious diseases by mathematically representing infection dynamics, population geographies, and population mobility patterns. Additional Resources Disease modeling for public health: added value, challenges, and institutional constraints Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management CDC-RFA-OT18-1802 2018-2024 article yes

Disease Forecasting and Modeling Data for Public Health Action Disease Forecasting Benefits Public Health Planning Disease forecasting and modeling help prepare public health departments for future infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. Disease forecasting and modeling data can be powerful tools for state and local health agencies (S/THAs) that respond to outbreaks, develop appropriate policies, and ensure interventions have maximum impact. Actions for which decision-makers can leverage such data include: Surveillance. Forecasts and modeling help public health agencies anticipate the spread of disease or outbreaks. This advance warning allows public health officials to inform public health recommendations, preparation, and response. Communication. Disease forecasts help relate the risk of disease outbreaks to various audiences accurately and quickly, which, in turn, can inform messages on important preventive measures and encourages compliance with recommended interventions. Resource allocation. Modeling data can help decision-makers better allocate resources by predicting where and when disease outbreaks are likely to intensify and create the greatest need. Evaluation. Forecasts and modeling can help make evaluating the effectiveness of public health policies and interventions more efficient by comparing predicted outcomes with observed data and adjusting as needed. Considerations Informed by S/THA Forecasting Jurisdictions with forecasting experience identified key indicators to monitor as part of outbreak forecasting, which fall into three main categories: Epidemic spread indicators (e.g., symptom monitoring, morbidity and mortality data, percent positivity, regional pictures of transmission). Health care system capacity (e.g., essential and/or surge personnel, available beds, ventilator usage, and supply of personal protective equipment. Public health capacity for testing capacity and contact tracing. Further considerations for S/THAs: Know your strengths. Identify the unique skillsets among partners in public health, academia, and the private sector and consider how they foster reciprocal relationships. Recognize capacity/expertise gaps. Consider leveraging partnerships for specific types of analytics expertise while exploring internal capacity building opportunities (e.g., job shadowing and resource-sharing programs on workflows and methodologies). Engage legal and compliance teams. Ensure policy and practice are aligned among partners. Explore data access/sharing pipelines. Connect public, private, academic partners, and their audiences. Start small. Identify discrete forecasting and modeling projects to demonstrate success. Identify decision-makers’ needs. Provide quick access to analyses, metrics, dashboards. Michigan Used Models and Forecasting for Hep C Cases In response to Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in young adults from 2010-2018, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) simulated how HCV treatment could significantly reduce HCV prevalence among young people who inject drugs, especially for those both previously or currently injecting drugs. MDHHS used several novel predictors to paint a local picture of probable HCV diagnoses among residents up to age 40. These predictors included measures related to a variety of population characteristics (e.g., access to transportation, college education, presence of non-family households) and public health indicators (e.g., heroin treatment admissions, newborns with neonatal abstinence syndrome, and sexually-transmitted infections). MDHHS also leveraged county-level assessments of HCV vulnerability to identify locations for new syringe services programs in the state. MDHHS has recognized several modeling and analytics use cases that benefitted their work during responses to HCV and COVID-19: Short-term forecasts (i.e., weeks) helped predict likely transmission patterns and potential ranges of projections. Longer-term forecasts (i.e., months) explored scenarios based on new recommendations and policy changes. Retrospective counterfactuals evaluated the impact of policies or other changes by examining “what-if” situations. MDHHS is considering using forecasts and models for COVID-19, influenza epidemics, tuberculosis vulnerability, and C. auris spread. Resource constraints require decision-makers and public health practitioners to consider how they are using available resources for the highest return on investment. Models generated momentum to respond to threats and evaluate whether interventions were successful. CDC-RFA-OT18-1802 2018-2024 article yes

This episode discusses why there needs to be a comprehensive response in public health surveillance, in particular around the opioid epidemic. After all, without thorough data, it’s tough for lawmakers to drive action that will reduce the prevalence and incidence of drug overdoses.

The second half of Public Health Review's story on the opioid epidemic explores how coalitions in Kentucky are driving prevention efforts, what public health practitioners in West Virginia are doing to identify and care for newborns who have been exposed prenatally to addictive drugs, and how one federal agency is working to ensure that rural communities get access substance abuse and mental health services.

This article in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice assesses the impact of COVID-19 on health service utilization of adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities through an analysis of Medicaid claims data..

As a truly historic year comes to an end, many public health policy issues received a considerable amount of attention in 2020. Subjects such as the pandemic that will live on in infamy, racial health disparities, and the future of the Affordable Care Act, are just a few of the major health issues that took center stage on Capitol Hill this year.

Though COVID-19 has dominated public health over the past year, other communicable diseases are still occurring at troubling rates. The CDC recently released data in their Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance, 2019 report, showing that the reported cases of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis continued to increase for the sixth consecutive year and are among the most reported diseases in the United States. As STD Awareness Month comes to a close, below is a breakdown of key takeaways from CDC’s surveillance report and tips for how state health officials can address rising STD rates through leadership, communications, and policy.

Although suicide was a critical public health issue in the U.S. long before the COVID-19 pandemic began, Americans are now reporting increased mental health challenges like depression, anxiety, and suicidal behaviors. In addition, millions have experienced financial hardships, social isolation and loneliness, and increased stress—all of which are shared risk factors for mental health conditions, suicidal behaviors, and substance misuse. State public health officials have taken bold action over the past 12 months to mitigate the physical impacts of COVID-19, and the same swift action should be applied to mitigate the acute and potential long-term mental health, suicide, and substance use impacts. The National Response’s "An Action Plan for Strengthening Mental Health and Prevention of Suicide in the Aftermath of COVID-19" provides a roadmap for addressing the mental health, suicide prevention, and substance misuse prevention needs spurred by COVID-19.

This June marked the 40-year anniversary of the first five cases of what later became known as AIDS reported in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Since then, more than 32 million people have died from the disease worldwide and nearly 38 million currently live with the HIV virus (including 1.2 million people in the United States). Over that period, tremendous strides have been made in HIV testing, prevention strategies, and treatment of individuals living with the virus to ensure that they can lead healthier and longer lives. While these advancements have led to significant progress in reducing HIV/AIDS-related deaths and new infection rates, HIV/AIDS continues to be a persistent problem in the United States. The federal government and state legislatures are taking significant steps toward ending the HIV epidemic, including steps to reduce new infections, combating stigma, and advancing access to care and HIV prevention

ASTHO has several members from the territories and Freely Associated States—jurisdictions with unique challenges, and do not fall under the category of a state or federal district. This post is a brief look at some of the public health related legislation introduced during recent legislative sessions.

As communities around the country continue to navigate the complexities of COVID-19 management and prevention this fall, reliable resources are needed for connecting public health leaders with the latest information on treatment. HHS's Combat COVID website provides information and tools for both the public and public health officials to learn about available COVID-19 treatments and clinical trial research underway to identify new treatments.

Nov. 3, 2021, marks the sixth annual One Health Day, a global campaign to recognize and embrace how public health is connected to the health of animals and our shared environment. In this post, ASTHO talks about One Health with Wayne E. Cascio, MD, who serves as the Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research and Development at EPA.

A mid-session legislative update on five of ASTHO's top 10 public health state policy issues to watch in 2023: data privacy and modernization, reproductive health, health equity, strengthening public health agencies, and immunization.