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This resource highlights state-based program initiatives tailored to improving hypertensive disorders of pregnancy outcomes.

State firearm survey data can inform firearm injury prevention strategies—read recommendations for developing state firearm surveys and applying findings.

Learn key lessons from the DREAM Learning Community about addressing structural racism and driving systemic change, which can help achieve optimal health for all.

Defining Disease Forecasting and Modeling Disease forecasting, generated by disease models, helps the public health workforce understand potential future outbreaks. Learn more about disease forecasts and models. Disease forecasting is important in describing potential future outbreaks that will affect the population and demand for health services in a given geographic area. Forecasts pull input from various sources (e.g., disease models, demographic, mobility, and intervention impact data). Individual forecasts can also be part of an ensemble forecast to improve accuracy. Forecasts can cover any length of time, but most target a window of several weeks to a few months. A subset of forecasts, known as nowcasts, seek to estimate present conditions, or those expected to occur imminently. Disease models are mathematical tools that are foundational components of disease forecasts. They estimate quantifiable factors that are impossible or impractical to directly measure, (e.g., future hospitalizations from a given disease, or its infection count in a population). Although models can be useful for specific questions, they do not give as complete a picture as a forecast. There are four major disease model types: Mechanistic. Attempts to simulate biological and/or social processes of transmission based on assumptions from prior or experimental data. Statistical. Relies on past data (such as infections or death) to predict future trends and can incorporate some assumptions about intervention application and uptake. Quality and quantity of past data can be a major limitation, and some models may suggest biological improbabilities. Agent. Simulates individual risks and behaviors in a population. These are highly complex, computationally very expensive to develop and run and require vast amounts of data and strong assumptions. Ensemble. Like their forecasting counterparts, they compile models and outputs, mitigating the risk of relying on one data point. While raising the overall confidence in output, they require coordination of many models to be built and simulated, which can be complex and costly unless the models already exist (such as for COVID-19 case counts). Forecasts and Models Work Together While disease forecasts and models are often conflated, they are discrete concepts. Forecasts offer a general prediction, whereas models are the mathematical pieces forecasters use to create them. Weather forecasts are commonplace, and their weekly predictions are often reasonably accurate. In contrast, predicting a big storm’s individual factors (e.g., rainfall, wind speed, lightning strikes) fall to the job of models. Together, those models help meteorologists better understand the weather and generate a forecast. In a public health context, disease forecasting informs public health officials, health care providers, and policymakers about potential risks and guide decision-making regarding preventive measures, resource allocation, and response strategies. Meanwhile, disease models aim to simulate the behavior of infectious diseases under different scenarios, allowing researchers to explore and evaluate various factors that influence disease transmission. Considerations for Decision-Making Decision-makers should consider scope and limitations of forecasts and models. They may consider adding inputs—such as projections for economic and long-term impacts. Examples include economic impacts of school closures, costs of more staffing ahead of an outbreak, and supply chain shortage forecasts for personal protective equipment (PPE). Decision-makers at all levels should consider using modeling to answer more specific, practical questions rather than predicting overall trends. Forecasts can cover different geographic scales. Public health leaders will need granular, local data to most effectively inform decision-making and communications. Novel conditions and pathogens may not have readily available data to inform models or forecasts, which will affect their predictive ability. Health officials must effectively communicate these limitations to decision-makers and the public. Examples of Forecasts and Models CDC’s COVID-19 Forecast for Hospitalizations (ensemble forecast) shows the number of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in the United States from the prior two months and projected daily COVID-19 hospitalizations over the coming four weeks. Information sources are independent teams meeting submission and data quality requirements. CDC’s FluSight (ensemble forecast) has many contributing teams and models that predicts the upcoming weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions both nationally and by state. Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering county-level risk model for COVID-19 in the United States. This model leverages epidemiological data, mobile phone data, demographic and socioeconomic information, and behavioral metrics. The Global Epidemic and Mobility Framework simulates the global spread of infectious diseases by mathematically representing infection dynamics, population geographies, and population mobility patterns. Additional Resources Disease modeling for public health: added value, challenges, and institutional constraints Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management CDC-RFA-OT18-1802 2018-2024 article yes

Learn how health departments can focus their infectious disease prevention efforts in this brief.

Learn about how five jurisdictions approached self-measured blood pressure monitoring programs to reduce hypertension and uncover systemic barriers to care.

Learn how health agencies can strengthen their overdose prevention programs through business improvement.

Supporting policies that reduce HIV stigma and promote health equity is an important public health issue.

As part of ASTHO’s Public Health - Hope, Equity, Resilience, and Opportunity initiative, we are using this post to highlight some acts of thanks for organization leaders and supervisors to consider.

Following a hurricane, the risk of exposure to infectious disease increases due, in part, to the presence of floodwater and debris. Hurricanes may contribute to population displacement and overcrowding—further heightening risk factors for respiratory diseases—as well as cause damage to healthcare facilities. In this post, see how jurisdictions respond to the biggest post-hurricane threats, from water-borne diseases to severe disruptions in the healthcare system.

Reflections on ASTHO's time at the National Menthol Conference.

Learn about the role and impact of State offices of Rural Health in a Q&A with Alisa Druzba.

Adopting a public health approach to substance use by implementing harm reduction policies across all levels of government can help communities address the overdose crisis. This post analyzes e

Public health agencies are working to reduce dementia risk and to optimize the health and well-being of people living with dementia and their caregivers.

In an effort to help meet demand, some states and territories have joined interjurisdictional licensing compacts that allow a mental health care provider licensed in one state to provide care in another state—without needing to gain licensure in multiple states. These agreements also offer guidance on patient privacy for services rendered remotely or from out-of-state.

ASTHO interview with Elizabeth Harvey, PhD, MPH, a CDC Senior Maternal and Child Health Epidemiology Program assignee to the Tennessee Department of Health. Harvey shares her thoughts on the progress Tennessee has made on opioid use disorder throughout the state’s maternal and child health population.

While COVID-19 is still present and ever-changing, public health professionals must also grapple with new challenges such as monkeypox, increasing firearm homicide, and widespread heat waves. In the wake of such emergencies, public health preparedness is more critical than ever.

There are significant disparities in pregnancy-related outcomes in the United States. Many of these deaths considered preventable, so state and federal policy makers are taking steps to improve health outcomes for pregnant people.

Building a Culture of Care: Leadership in Public Health Agencies astho, association of state and territorial health officials, association of state and territorial health officials astho, state health official, public health official, territorial health official, island jurisdictions, state health, health department, public health, centers for disease control, creating a culture of care, public health workers, health equity, physical health, building a culture of care, health departments, public health professionals, training program, school of public health, mental health problems, public health leaders, public health workforce, mental well-being, culture of care, mental health, workforce development Chris Taylor ASHTO | A blog post highlighting three simple actions agencies can take to strengthen a culture of care. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic response, many of us have witnessed or experienced increased feelings of exhaustion, mental distance from our work, negativism or cynicism related to our jobs, and reduced professional efficacy. The World Health Organization classifies these symptoms of burnout as an occupational phenomenon, rather than as a medical condition. For governmental public health agencies to successfully promote and protect the health of their communities, it is imperative that they support their staff to remain healthy and resilient. This blog provides information and considerations for state, territorial, tribal, and local health departments to identify and address work related causes of burnout, as well as build and maintain the health and mental wellbeing of their staff. Governmental public health continues to play a central role in the COVID-19 response, which for more than two years has created unprecedented and prolonged demands on staff. Beyond the COVID-19 response, there continue to be massive changes in how and where we do business, as well as how we interact with one another, contributing to additional organizational stress. In 2021, CDC surveyed state, territorial, tribal, and local public health staff to assess symptoms of anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and suicidal ideation. Among 26,174 public health staff who participated: 53.0% reported symptoms of at least one mental health condition in the preceding two weeks, including anxiety (30.3%), depression (32.0%), PTSD (36.8%), or suicidal ideation (8.4%). The highest prevalence of symptoms was among respondents 29 years or younger, as well as transgender or nonbinary persons (i.e., those who identified as neither male nor female) of all ages. Public health staff who reported being unable to take time off work were more likely to report adverse mental health symptoms. Severity of symptoms increased with increasing weekly work hours and percentage of work time dedicated to COVID-19 response activities. In a 2022 follow up survey, 75.5% of respondents did not think their employer had increased mental health support. Additionally, other recent surveys have indicated a trend of rising stress and burnout in the public health workforce, leading many to resign and more to consider leaving their agencies. While some support to the workforce may be available in government agencies, staff may feel they don’t have time, or feel supported to utilize these programs. This blog series will explore strategies that health department leadership may consider to strengthen a culture of care in their organization. Three Simple Actions You Can Take Today to Strengthen a Culture of Care Health department leaders can have a major impact on the behaviors and health of their workforce. Consider taking these actions: Practice and offer a model of your own commitment to self-care Self-care, which includes a healthy diet, adequate sleep, and regular exercise, are critically important for leaders in maintaining productivity and effectiveness, particularly during stressful periods. Other ways to practice self-care can include meditation or mindfulness practices, journaling, expressing gratitude or acts of kindness, or connecting with friends and loved ones. Send a message to your entire department discussing the importance of self-care and sharing examples of how you practice self-care. This not only demonstrates that your organization values and supports self-care, but also gives practical examples for staff to consider implementing. This would also be an excellent opportunity to highlight the availability of an employee assistance program (EAP) or employee wellness programs and benefits. Acknowledge the mental health effects of the COVID-19 response Share an example of how you (or someone you care about) has been impacted emotionally or psychologically by the COVID-19 pandemic. Your example can normalize the burnout and moral injury that some of your staff may be experiencing, as well as build trust and connectedness. Talking about mental health at work is important to reduce the stigma and create an environment that is more open and understanding about anxiety, depression, and other mental health issues that might show up in the workplace. This is also an opportunity to discuss mental health coverage in your health insurance plan(s), as well as resources available in the community, some which may be funded by your department. Exercise at the office or on the office grounds One well-proven approach to addressing stress and improving mental health is exercise. As a leader, you can model the importance of exercise to your agency. This can be as simple as taking the stairs rather than the elevator, incorporating stretching throughout the day, or walking during phone calls. Invite staff of all abilities to join you in a stretch, movement, or walk break. Consider a standing desk, replacing your chair with a stability ball, or keeping exercise equipment in the office for use during breaks. By prioritizing and modeling physical activity, you are sending a message that self-care is important. What Does a Culture of Care Mean for You? Has your organization prioritized a culture of health and well-being? Are there lessons learned for your organization’s support of staff during the COVID-19 response? How is your organization ensuring a manageable workload, particularly during times of emergency response? Speak with your employee wellness, workforce development, human resources, and/or professional development teams to ensure the organization is best meeting the health and wellness needs of employees. Based on the alarming findings of the CDC surveys, special emphasis should be placed on ensuring employees have additional information about, and are aware of, services/referrals to treat anxiety, depression, PTSD, and suicidal ideation. What’s to Come? Many employers and leaders have been creative in strengthening a culture of care in their organization. Over the coming months, ASTHO will highlight specific strategies to increase a culture of care in your organization. We’ll also share examples employed by health officials and other senior leaders within health organizations. Finally, we plan to curate a list of resources for executives, supervisors, and employees for creating a culture of care, stress reduction, self-care, and burnout prevention. Conclusion For public health systems to serve their communities most effectively, it is imperative that their staff are healthy, both physically and mentally. State, territorial, tribal, and local health departments should consider policies and programs that support the health and mental well-being of their staff – particularly in high stress emergency responses. We look forward to additional opportunities to discuss these important issues, hear how health department leaders are strengthening a culture of care, and learning how ASTHO can support your efforts. website yes

The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted youth mental health, particularly as a result of school closures, social isolation, family economic hardship, fear of family loss or illness, and reduced access to healthcare. However, states have many strategies to choose from to improve youth mental health and reduce suicide.